In April 2023, Arne Güllich, Michael Barth, Brooke Macnamara and Zach Hambrick published a systematic review that leaves anyone designing athlete development pathways scratching their heads.
They pooled data on more than 38,000 juniors and almost 23,000 seniors across a wide range of sports.
Their conclusion was that successful juniors and successful seniors are largely two different groups of people.
For example, 89.2% of international-level juniors at U17/18 didn't go on to compete internationally as seniors.
And 82% of international-level seniors hadn't competed internationally at U17/18.
So, what can we take from this?
First, we must keep supporting the sports we work with to design pathways that are aware of this paradox.
That means building in features that let athletes on the edges of a pathway keep exploring their potential for as long as they want to.
Second, we must keep generating insight about our audience, young people with sporting potential, so we can keep improving the environments and experiences we create for them.
Starting with insight
That's why, in 2025, we worked with the Youth Sport Trust and insight and strategy company Beyond to create a playbook called Wired to Win.
It's a seminal, multi-sport study that explores the minds and motivations of Britain's next generation of sporting talent.
Two of its insights stood out.
For aspiring athletes, in a world full of ambiguity, winning stands alone as an undeniable truth.
It's a rare moment of absolute certainty: no debates, no nuance, just clear proof that they're on the right path.

